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Worksheets Revisited

The Racing and Sports interactive pre-race handicapping "worksheets" are one of the most popular and enduring tools on the racingandsports.com.au website.

Worksheets Revisited

The Racing and Sports interactive pre-race handicapping "worksheets" are one of the most popular and enduring tools on the racingandsports.com.au website.

RACING AND SPORTS WORKSHEETS (Part 1)

By Gary Crispe


Published in the Racing and Sports Friday Newsletter 17 April 2015

The Racing and Sports interactive pre-race handicapping "worksheets" are one of the most popular and enduring tools on the racingandsports.com.au website.

They are a derivative of the original Don Scott 'Eagle Form Tomorrow' sheets that were widely used in the 1980's and 90's.

While Don Scott pioneered the development and use of class weight ratings - including their role in deriving a "true value price line" - Racing and Sports has made some subtle changes to the rating calculation process primarily around the elimination of jockey ratings.

Racing and Sports has found that the removal of jockey ratings from the calculation process, for past class weight ratings, has led to greater accuracy in measuring the relative merit of each horse's performance.

Accordingly the Racing and Sports worksheets are in a slightly different layout, but are still able to produce a reliable price line for profitable betting.

The Scott Methodology has stood the test of time and works just as well today as it did 30 to 40 years ago - it just requires some hard work around the worksheets to find the edge.

When you first view the interactive worksheets on the Racing and Sports website, they will already have values set by the computer in most fields.

However, these are only intended to provide the user with a STARTING POINT for handicapping. They are never intended be used for punting in their unedited state.

The best way to use the work sheets is to consider each factor and make you own assumptions as to the level of bonus or penalty applicable.

Now we give some guidance on each type of value to be used by using the "down arrow" after the horse's name.

Again, this is a guide based around Scott's original rating profiling graphs.

Clearly a horse's current form cycle will be paramount to deciding on the form bonus - while its record first-up is important for the fitness penalty (which has a default setting of minus 6kgs).

Obviously, sharp first-up performers proven in this class, would not attract a penalty of this size.

First up/second up form etc is easily accessible on the Racing and Sports' Racing Analytics - Click Here For An Explanation or from the statistics-head-panel in the race cards.

The jockey bonus or penalty used in the initial work sheet is based around the Racing and Sports jockey ratings displayed on the site.

In next week’s Newsletter, our senior handicapper Adam Blencowe will take a look at one of the better races and explain the bonuses and penalties and any adjustments he would make to the pre-set values on the worksheet.

Adam recently wrote two articles on the importance of a reliable price line, urging punters to "think probalistically" which you can view here and here.

To access the Racing and Sports worksheets go to the Racing and Sports homepage and double click on Form on the horizontal menu at the top of the page.

Then select a meeting - and a race - from the menu displayed. Worksheet is displayed on the horizontal menu - click Worksheet to engage.

RACING AND SPORTS WORKSHEETS (Part 2)

By Adam Blencowe

Published in the Racing and Sports Friday Newsletter 24 April 2015

In last week’s newsletter, Racing and Sports CEO and chief handicapper Gary Crispe discussed the Racing and Sports interactive pre-race handicapping “worksheets”.

To further explain the worksheets and their utility, I will throw an eye over the “race of the weekend” – Sunday’s 2015 Group 1 QEII Cup from Sha Tin.

We are presented with the worksheet opening screen and pre-set values—

BRR — The base-run rating. Typically this uses the best of the last three starts in the current campaign, but best results will come when making an informed decision as to which run/rating best reflects the horse in focus.

FORM — The column where we predict the form cycle. Is the horse likely to improve, regress, or flat-line?

Designs On Rome , is coming off a beaten run over in Dubai and is a candidate to run below his peak (-3kg pre-set).

Military Attack and Blazing Speed have been racing consistently in Hong Kong and much the same can be expected from them, hence they are at zero (pre-set).

Criterion and Red Cadeaux both come off good runs at Randwick and arrive at positive spots in their respective campaigns — so they are allowed further improvement, albeit only slight (+1kg, +1.5kg pre-set).

COND — is for condition and gives bonuses and penalties based on fitness and working on the theory that horses improve for recent racing. This has perhaps become less relevant as training facilities improve but many horses can still be expected to ‘come on’ for recent racing.

Staphanos is off a break — which might make him a candidate to run below his best. But it’s only a short break of 56 days, and he’s a lightly raced improver. He can easily be envisaged running to, or above, his previous best here. So in the next screen you will see I have removed the -3kg condition penalty.

CONS — this column is tied to recent strike-rate. It uses the Don Scott method described in The Winning Way. In the next screen you will see that I have altered Red Cadeaux and given him a 3kg penalty for the fact that he has gone 868 days and 17 runs without a win.

JOCK – This column operates on the Racing and Sports jockey ratings available on the site. In the case of International competition like this race, I have altered them slightly to push up the local hoops and slow down a couple of the travellers. Just as in most sports home ground advantage has to be worth something in racing.

Revised worksheet

It is worth noting that I have removed (remove ticks on right) those runners that are 50-1 or bigger. I have set the market to 90% so we have left ourselves with a 10% buffer against these horses.

Prices here point towards the Australian Criterion proving very hard to beat with the Japanese up-and-comer Staphanos the potential X-factor horse.

There's potentially a bit against the locals, led by Designs On Rome who has to come back from a trip to Dubai at the tail end of a long campaign. That's no easy task, and he will do well to turn up in his best form here.

It will be interesting to see how the betting shapes on the day.

The few markets currently about would suggest that your worksheet has Criterion about the right price. Designs On Rome will be under our price, while Staphanos and Blazing Speed might go around as value, with double-figure quotes around at present.

Racing And Sports



Check out our FREE full form, ratings for meetings in nine countries each and every day.


76630
R8 SHA TIN 26 April 2015
THE AUDEMARS PIGUET QEII CUP , 2000m
FP
 
Horse
Age & Sex
Trainer
Jockey
WT
SP
 
1st  
3. BLAZING SPEED (GB)
8yo Gelding
A S CRUZ
N CALLAN
57.0
$15.00
 
DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) - LEUKIPPIDS (IRE)
Fentons Racing Syndicate
2nd  
9. STAPHANOS (JPN)
6yo H
H FUJIWARA
Y FUKUNAGA
57.0
$18.00
 
DEEP IMPACT (JPN) - KOKOSHNIK (JPN)
U.Carrot Farm
3rd  
4. CRITERION (NZ)
6yo H
DAVID HAYES
CRAIG WILLIAMS
57.0
$2.50
 
SEBRING (AUS) - MICA'S PRIDE (AUS)
 Sir O G Glenn
4th  1. DESIGNS ON ROME (IRE)
7yo Gelding
JOHN MOORE
JOAO MOREIRA
57.0
$3.90
5th  12. PACKING LLAREGYB (IRE)
7yo H
ANDREAS SCHUTZ
OLIVIER PESLIER
57.0
$32.00
6th  6. Helene Super Star (USA)
7yo H
A S CRUZ
DOUGLAS WHYTE
57.0
$14.00
7th  2. MILITARY ATTACK (IRE)
9yo Gelding
CASPAR FOWNES
BRETT PREBBLE
57.0
$9.70
8th  10. HELENE HAPPY STAR (IRE)
6yo H
JOHN MOORE
TOMMY BERRY
57.0
$6.50
9th  8. CALIFORNIA MEMORY (USA)
11yo Gelding
A S CRUZ
K TEETAN
57.0
$85.00
10th  7. SMOKING SUN (USA)
8yo H
P BARY
S PASQUIER
57.0
$91.00
11th  5. RED CADEAUX (GB)
11yo Gelding
ED DUNLOP
HUGH BOWMAN
57.0
$16.00
12th  11. SAME WORLD (GB)
9yo H
JOHN MOORE
DEREK LEUNG
57.0
$266.00
 


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